Kraken report: correlation of BTC with the S&P 500 index grows, while with gold it falls

According to the latest report from the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, a 31% drop in Bitcoin trading in June led to BTC's annual volatility reaching a six-month low.

According to Kraken in its report, June was the most unremarkable month on the Bitcoin trading market since February. The lack of activity on the market led to a decrease in trading volume on the exchange to a four-month low of $ 36.6 billion.

Earlier this month, CryptoCompare analysts also reported a decrease in trading volume. They noted that in June, trading volumes on "top-level spot" cryptocurrency exchanges fell 36% to $ 177 billion, and Bitcoin volatility dropped to its lowest value for the year.

According to Kraken, in light of the weak market and low volatility, the price of BTC fell by 4.4%, which was the lowest price change since last August.

As a result of the change in trends that took place earlier this year, the thirty-day correlation of Bitcoin with the S&P 500 index became "significantly more positive" and rose to 0.65 at the end of June. At the same time, the thirty-day correlation of BTC with gold fell below the average for the year and reached a minimum of -0.49.

Interestingly, in early June, CoinMetrics noted a high correlation between the price of gold and Bitcoin in recent months. At the same time, according to VanEck, the correlation between assets has intensified since March.

Kraken analysts believe that the change in the correlation of Bitcoin with gold and the S&P 500 index made it less like a safe asset and more like a traditional financial asset in the context of a recovery in the global stock market.

The report notes that market participants should pay more attention to the thirty-day forecast volatility index for the S&P 500 (VIX). If BTC is about to change a multi-year macroeconomic downtrend, it needs to rise above $ 10,500 and trigger an upward price movement. 

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